Thursday, December 18, 2014

CDC Doubles Estimate: Says 3,400 US Airline Passengers Will Sit Within 3 Feet Of An Ebola Patient Next Year

On December 12 the US Centers for Disease Control reported to the Office Management and Budget [OMB] that CDC expects to interview 3,400 US commercial airline passengers that were seated within 3 feet of an Ebola patient.
"so that CDC can better assess the risk to individuals who may have been exposed to a confirmed case of Ebola while traveling to or within the United States"

Using the conservative estimate that 8 airline passengers are seated within the 3 foot zone set out by the CDC, the CDC is expecting 425 actively infected Ebola patients to fly into the USA next year. We believe the Winter New Year time frame is the high risk period for these entries.

Just as CDC's short sighted Ebola risk assessment and PPE direction lead to the infections of two nurses in the Thomas Duncan Ebola case, the CDC has taken no steps to mitigate the Department of Defense's concern that Winter weather may facilitate a super flu like airborne spread of Ebola. As such, the CDC is counting on Ebola to only spread as it does in warm weather, ie close contact with the VERY sick.

Apparently even the fact that CDC just DOUBLED the number of expected Ebola exposures to US flyers is not enough to raise their concerns.  In November the CDC had informed OMB that they expected to interview 1,700 commercial airline passengers, now exactly 1 month later CDC has doubled the number to 3,400 directly exposed airline passengers.

The CDC expects to interview these 3,400 people at 20 minutes each. CDC also informed OMB that CDC expects the 50,000 exposed people who were on these flights but seated further than 3 feet away from the Ebola patient, to call the CDC and be read a "script".

"this script assesses the risk of a plan passenger who was not in the immediate vicinity of the Ebola patient but still has concerns about the level of exposure and risk of contracting the virus."


CDC December OMB Ebola emergency notice

CDC November OMB Ebola emergency notice

Department of Defense Says EBOLA IS "AEROSTABLE"; Fears Persistent Sewer System Contagion

US ARMY Says EBOLA = FLU in Airborne Stability, Needs Winter Weather To Go Airborne

Aerosolizing ONE DROP of Ebola Infected Blood Can Kill 500,000 People

CDC Says It Will Actively Monitor 65,250 Ebola Exposed Travelers Entering The USA Per Year

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

CDC Says It Will Actively Monitor 65,250 Ebola Exposed Travelers Entering The USA Per Year

The CDC has notified the Office of Management and Budget that CDC expects to actively monitor 65,250 at risk Ebola travelers entering the USA per year. Obviously CDC came to this number by counting the number of travelers that have already entered the USA in the last 3 months and projecting it out to 12 months.

Reverse engineering CDC's projection, 16,313 Ebola exposed travelers have entered the USA since the Ebola outbreak began. Clearly such a large number of potentially Ebola infected travelers undergoing active monitoring for 21 days creates a huge risk and manpower requirement. To that end, CDC is creating a daily robo-call system to contact these people (in both French and English) everyday for 21 days.

"CDC is also requesting the incorporation of a telephonic, automated survey administered either through Interactive Voice Response (IVR) phone system which asks travelers if they have developed a fever or any other symptoms potentially indicative of Ebola exposure (OMB Control No 0920-1034). This system is used to assist states in actively monitoring those travelers from Ebola affected countries for 21 days after arrival. The additional burden requested for the use of the IVR system is 91,350 hours."

No matter which way CDC attempts to cut it, the Ebola response is currently overwhelming the CDC. Automating aspects of the response may serve to lessen some of that burden, but it comes at the cost of reduced quality and increased risk as as anyone who has ever had to press 1 to hold for a human on an automated voice service system knows,


Company Near Ferguson Riots Awarded Contract To Urgently Deploy Their Ebola Transport Isolation System

A Saint Louis company within rioting distance of the Ferguson unrest has just won a two million dollar urgent contract to urgently deploy a palletized airborne isolation chamber capable of holding 12 Ebola patients for military transport. The company has been developing the product as a follow on to the Airborne Biological Containment System they developed for Phoenix Air Group. Several aspects of the contract including who the DoD has tasked with handling these Ebola evacuations have been redacted, but its safe to guess Phoenix Air Group is involved.

"The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) contracting activity proposes to procure, without using full and open competition, the development and validation testing of a Transport Isolation System (TIS) to be used for the safe evacuation of Ebola-exposed or Ebola-infected personnel from affected areas. DTRA intends to award a Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF) letter contract to Production Products Manufacturing and Sales Co., Inc. (PPStL) of St. Louis, Missouri. The contract is expected to be approximately four and a half months in duration, with a not-to-exceed (NTE) price of $2,380,505.76"

"Open and competitive channels of acquisition are not suitable in this case due to the urgent national need to rapidly develop the TIS for immediate use in support of the Ebola outbreak"
Given the urgent need spelled out in the contract and PPStL's proximity to the Ferguson, Mike Brown protesters may just have a new venue to show their true colors.


Friday, November 21, 2014

CDC Seeks To Use a Bio Safety Level 2 LIVE EBOLA VACCINE With Limited Intramuscular And Lymph Node Spread

The government always announces the scary stuff on Fridays and Holidays to keep it out of the News Cycle, today is no different. The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) released a solicitation looking for companies that can formulate and fill live Ebola vaccines.

These live Ebola vaccines are dangerous enough that formulating and filling the vaccine vials "may require that these processes take place in a Biological Safety Level 2 (BSL2) facility."

While the solicitation says multiple live Ebola vaccine types may be in play, only two are specified by name.

"1. RVSVdG eBOV vaccine replication-competent live virus vaccine utilizes a recombinant Vesicular Stomatitis Virus (rVSV) lacking the native VSV glycoprotein (ΔG) and bearing the glycoprotein (GP) of ZEBOV, which is the target of protective immunity. The rVSVΔG ZEBOV is an attenuated virus and capable of limited replication after administration, which is believed to be the basis for the potent immunogenicity of this vaccine vector. 

2. rVSVN4CT1-Z-EboV Vaccine utilizes attenuated replication-competent rVSV vector that is injected IM, it undergoes limited propagation at the injection site and in the local draining lymph nodes, but does not spread to other organs and tissues."

Both of these vaccine use the Vesicular Stomatitis Virus as a delivery mechanism of Ebola proteins chosen to trigger the Human immune system. While not mentioned specifically in this solicitation, there is also a Live Ebola vaccine that uses a Live Rabies Virus as its delivery mechanism.

Unfortunately vaccine work is often pushed on the public as if it were settled science, unfortunately it often is more like well describe Alchemy and Voodoo. A key example being last year's live influenza vaccine which to scientists amazement offered no protection against last year's deadly H1N1 Epidemic. Its possible that that vaccine malfunction may have actually contributed to the pandemic.


US Licensing LIVE Rabies Based EBOLA Vaccine, Preps Pandemic Quarantine Stations & Injury Fund

CDC Statement on LAIV Effectiveness and Vaccination of Children

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Fort Hood Texas Places Urgent EBOLA BioSafety Order Citing "Elevated Risk" Yet Tells The Public Situation is "Low Risk"

Fort Hood Texas just placed an urgent order for a bench top biosafety containment workstation with the capability to provide point of care Ebola testing. In the justification for this equipment the justification cites that soldiers redeploying to Fort Hood may be Ebola infected and that the situation places the Fort Hood population at elevated risk of becoming infected with Ebola.

Of course the military and local civic leaders tell the public something very different than the elevated risk claimed in the sole source justification

The military says:
 “The chances of them having (Ebola) while they are here are very, very slim,”

and the Mayor says:
 “I consider this a very low-risk operation and the right thing to do.”

People who can read probably should come to a different conclusion than what words of safety coming out of the military and the mayor mouths. In fact, a close reading of the document would indicate that Fort Hood does not have a biosafety chain of custody for dealing with the soldiers body fluids. Thats why they've placed an urgent order for a separate bench top bio-containment system. Think DoD should have picked a location with a true medical isolation capability instead of this last minute hodge-podge type thing they are trying to throw together as possibly infected soldiers come flying in.


Sole Source Justification

Monday, November 17, 2014

MAXIMUM ALERT! Ebola Flight Indicates Mexican Ebola Patient In Guadalajara Being Flown To Atlanta For Treatment

Update: 11/18/14

Multiple "Ebola false alarms are reported in the Guadalajara airport" according to last Saturday's local Jalisco newspaper. So what does it mean when there are multiple reports of Ebola cases at an airport, followed by the Mexican State Ebola training 400 Doctors in the same location  for an "eventual case of Ebola", and then to top it off Phoenix Air Group's Ebola Air Ambulance makes a trip to the very same airport and follows a return flight path back to Atlanta indicative of an Ebola patient? 

It also means that an Illegal Immigration surge should be expected, and that they might be infected.

The flight schedule of Phoenix Air Group's 2nd Ebola Ambulance indicates that an Ebola patient is being picked up at the Guadalajara International Airport and being flown to the Fulton County Airport in Atlanta, Georgia.  The destination airport indicates that the patient is being taken to Emory Hospital in Atlanta.

The obviously troubling aspect is that the situation indicates that Ebola is loose in Mexico. It also seems strange that Obama would be willing to import a Mexican Ebola patient when the Mexican government refused to assist in transporting an American under observation for Ebola who was on a cruise ship off of the Mexican coast.

A screen capture of the return flight is shown below as these flights are often rapidly "disappeared" from commercial tracking software.

 We believe this marks the 3rd international Ebola patient flown to the USA in the last 10 days.

#1 An illegal African Immigrant from Gran Canaria Spain on November 9th
#2 A patient from West Africa on November 13; later confirmed to be Dr Martin Salia
#3 Unknown Mexican patient today 11/17/14


It Appears Obama Has Flown an Illegal Immigrant African Ebola Victim To USA From Gran Canaria

Friday, November 14, 2014

Ferguson Looting & Rioting Factors and Analysis: Black Friday, Angry Police, Snitches-Get-Stitches, Jay Nixon & Hair Extensions

Based on the pattern of Looting and Rioting last August tied to the Mike Brown killing in Ferguson it seems possible to estimate the level of looting and rioting to be expected IF the Grand Jury does not indict Officer Darren Wilson

Little known aspects of the August rioting

#1 A Snitches-Get-Stitches ethos drove much of the early rioting and looting

The QuikTrip (QT) was looted and burned on day 1 because of the locals erroneously believed that Mike Brown had stolen the cigars from QT & that they had "snitched" on him.

Once it became clear to the locals that Mike Brown had actually robbed the Ferguson Market and that the stores owners had aided police by turning over video of the robbery, they too received the snitches-get-stitches attack. That anger then spilled over to other Indian owned business in the area like Red's BBQ

#2 Back-To-School Looting and Hair Extensions

After the locals had satisfied their Snitches-Get-Stitches needs, the looting turned to target Back-To-School clothing needs and Hair Extensions. The Hair Extension looting continued long after the last sneakers and shirts had been looted.

Fast Forward to the expected November rioting

#1 Grand Jury Snitches-Get-Stitches Redux

As Grand Jury information  comes out, anyone who provided information that served to exonerate Officer Darren Wilson should expect a Snitches-Get-Stitches backlash

#2 Thanksgiving Black Friday & Christmas Looting

Just as Mike Browns' death coincided with Back-To-School shopping season, the Grand Jury outcome will coincide with Black Friday and Christmas shopping. Compared to school clothing needs, the looting list for Black Friday is much broader and many more stores could be hit. Additionally, all the hair extensions stolen last August are starting to wear out now and a strong looting demand to replenish those hair extensions should be expected.

Police reaction then:

Police over responded like an occupying force in the immediate aftermath of Mike Browns' shooting, in turn angering the local non-criminal but fed up with bad cops subsegment of Ferguson. Shortly after which, militarized police deployed in mass and gave otherwise lawful protesters no where to go except direct forceful confrontation. At that stage, Governor Jay Nixon decided to render the police impotent rather than risk democratic inner city voter rebellion in November.

The result was police chose not to defend business and property from rioters, but rather to flee to impotent staging points. During the worst of this, we overheard police on their radios abandoning the area and informing local homeowners to arm themselves against the rioters.

Police reaction now:

The police likely have lots of built up anger from Jay Nixon's flip-flopping rendering them impotent. And while Governor Jay Nixon's flip flopping will likely continue, he no longer has inner city democratic elections to restrain him from unleashing the militarized police. As such, police over reaction should be expected. But once again, its unlikely police will use direct force to protect property or homeowners.

The broader regional criminal element will likely also be energized to take maximum advantage of Black Friday and Christmas Looting. How the non-criminal local protester element reacts to the situation likely depends on how abused they feel by Governor Nixon's response.

The outsider protester element seems to be agent provocateur and media attention driven, they may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. If the Ferguson McDonalds and its free WiFi burns, they will likely be the forces behind it.

In the end, how bad things get outside of Ferguson is based mostly on how badly Governor Jay Nixon screws things up. How badly things get inside Ferguson is mostly a function of Hair-Extensions demand.